A debt sustainability analysis of the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic: a non parametric approach

Farkašovský, Vlastimil; Lawson, Colin Wiliam; Zimková, Emília

doi:https://dx.doi.org/10.15240/tul/001/2015-3-002

Počet záznamov: 1

A debt sustainability analysis of the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic: a non parametric approach

Title	A debt sustainability analysis of the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic: a non parametric approach
Par.title	Analýza dlhovej udržateľnosti Českej a Slovenskej republiky: neparametrický prístup
Author info	Vlastimil Farkašovský, Colin Wiliam Lawson, Emília Zimková
Author	Farkašovský Vlastimil 1988- (40%) UMBEF04 - Katedra financií a účtovníctva
Co-authors	Lawson Colin Wiliam 1948- (20%) Zimková Emília 1964- (40%) UMBEF04 - Katedra financií a účtovníctva
Source document	E+M Ekonomie a Management. Roč. 18, č. 3 (2015), s. 18-29. - Liberec : Technická univerzita v Liberci, 2015
Keywords	udržateľnosť verejného dlhu hrubý verejný dlh public debt sustainability verejný dlh - štátny dlh - public debts
Language	English
Country	Czech Republic
systematics	330
Annotation	Surging public debt since the Great Recession has focused increasing attention on the issue of debt sustainability. This paper provides debt sustainability analyses for the Czech Republic and Slovakia by estimating their public debt to GDP, and primary balance to GDP ratios up until 2022 under three different projections. The fi rst, labelled the baseline projection, predicts their debt ratios to 2022, if neither their public debt to GDP ratios nor their primary balance to GDP ratios change. This projection uses the offi cial forecasts of the key variables. The second projection answers the question of how much the two counties have to consolidate, measured by their primary balance to GDP ratios, if they want to hold their public debt to GDP ratios at their current levels. The third projection answers the question of how much the countries have to consolidate if they aim to reattain their December 2008 pre-crisis public debt to GDP ratios. All three projections are made for the same fi ve scenarios, which cover a status quo case, where offi cial forecasts are realized, and both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for growth and consolidation outcomes. The paper`s novelty lies in its development of an existing non-parametric methodology to encompass iterative numerical solution methods to assess public debt sustainability. This allows a richer set of results to be obtained, for example estimates for the required level of the public debt to GDP ratio, and the primary balance to GDP ratio, taking account of variables such as nominal interest rates, yields to maturity on public debt, infl ation rates and average maturities of debt
Public work category	ADM
No. of Archival Copy	34247
Repercussion category	KERSAN-SKABIC, Ines. How to measure sustainability in developed counties? a comparison of different approaches. In Economic and social development : 13th international scientific conference on economic and social development, Barcelona, 14th-16th April 2016. Varazdin : Varazdin development & enterpereneurship agency, 2016. ISSN 1849-7535, pp. 265-275. MIRDALA, Rajmund - KAMENIK, Martin. Effects of fiscal policy shocks in CE3 countries (tvar approach). In E+M. Ekonomie a management. ISSN 1212-3609, 2017, vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 46-64. PČOLINSKÁ, Lenka - KALUZHNYI, Dmytro. Slovakia’s public debt - the Greek path? In Verejná správa a spoločnosť [online]. 2024, roč. 25, č. 1, s. 33-56 [cit. 2024-09-04]. ISSN 2453-9236. Dostupné na: https://doi.org/10.33542/VSS2024-1-3
Catal.org.	BB301 - Univerzitná knižnica Univerzity Mateja Bela v Banskej Bystrici
Database	xpca - PUBLIKAČNÁ ČINNOSŤ
References	PERIODIKÁ-Súborný záznam periodika